Pittsburgh SteelersvsHouston Texans

[THE SETUP] Pittsburgh hosts Houston at Acrisure Stadium on Monday, January 12, 2026, with kickoff at 8:15 PM EST. The weather forecast calls for 28°F with a RealFeel of 19°F, 10 mph southwest winds gusting to 21 mph, partly cloudy skies, and 9% chance of snow. The market opened at Texans -3 and currently sits at Texans -3 (-105) / Steelers +3 (-115) as of game week. The total opened at 39.5 and is now trading at 38.5, with the Over at +100 and Under at -122. Moneyline sits at Texans -150 for the visitors and Steelers +130 for the hosts. Public betting shows a 50-50 split on both bets and money percentages, indicating no sharp movement despite Houston entering on a nine-game winning streak. ​ [DATA CORE: DEPTH ANALYSIS] Efficiency Metrics: Houston ranks 1st in Defensive EPA/Play allowed and 1st in Defensive Success Rate, surrendering only 277.2 yards per game (1st in NFL) and 17.4 points per game (2nd in NFL). Their defense has been the backbone, posting -0.13 EPA/Play allowed throughout the 2025 season. Offensively, the Texans rank 19th in Offensive EPA/Play at -0.05, showing improvement from last season's -0.09. Comparatively, Pittsburgh has posted 18th in Offensive EPA/Play and 19th in Defensive EPA/Play over the regular season. ​ Tactical Matchup: Houston's elite defense contrasts sharply with Pittsburgh's middling offensive production. The Steelers rank 18th in EPA/Play, 17th in Success Rate, but show strength in rushing (7th in Rushing EPA, 6th in Rushing Success Rate). Their passing game struggles significantly, ranking 19th in Dropback EPA and 26th in Dropback Success Rate. Aaron Rodgers completed the 2025 regular season with 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions over 17 games (65.7% completion rate, 94.8 passer rating) but managed only 6.7 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud posted 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (64.5% completion, 92.9 rating) with 7.2 yards per attempt. ​ Trench Warfare & Pace: Pittsburgh averages 5.8 yards per play with limited explosive play generation. The Steelers' offensive line ranks 14th in Pass Block Win Rate (65%) and 25th in Run Block Win Rate (66%) per early-season metrics, while Houston's pass rush capabilities remain elite. The Texans defense ranks 2nd in overall DVOA while Pittsburgh sits 11th defensively and 16th offensively. Houston's offensive line has struggled with pass protection at times, posting 37.9% Pass Block Win Rate in early measurements. Pittsburgh's defense improved from 11th to 9th in weighted defensive DVOA, emphasizing late-season performance, while Houston's offense sits 21st overall in DVOA and 16th in weighted metrics. ​ Turnover differential favors Houston significantly. The Steelers have lost five consecutive postseason games since their 2016 AFC Championship appearance. In contrast, C.J. Stroud has secured two playoff victories in his first two seasons, matching Aaron Rodgers' playoff win total since 2017. Pittsburgh's home playoff record on Monday Night Football is exceptional—they haven't lost a Monday night home game since 1991. However, Houston enters riding momentum with victories over playoff teams including Buffalo (-19) and the Chargers (20-16) during their nine-game winning streak. ​ Red Zone efficiency shows Pittsburgh struggling to convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns. The Steelers scored only 13 points in their Week 17 loss to Cleveland and managed just 3 points at halftime against Baltimore in Week 18 before rallying. Houston's red zone EPA/Play improved from -0.22 in 2024 to -0.15 in 2025, though still below league average. Special Teams advantage goes to Houston with Ka'imi Fairbairn, whom coach DeMeco Ryans calls "such a great kicker" after converting crucial field goals during their winning streak. Seven of Houston's nine victories during the streak were decided by eight points or less, highlighting their ability to win close games. ​ [AVAILABILITY & REST REPORT] Houston Injury Status: RB Jawhar Jordan (OUT - ankle/knee), CB Ajani Carter (Questionable - hamstring/knee), S Jaylen Reed (Questionable - forearm), OT Tytus Howard (Full Practice - ankle), DE Denico Autry (Full Practice - knee), DT Sheldon Rankins (Full Practice - elbow). Key Out: Jawhar Jordan, leaving Houston down one backfield contributor with Woody Marks (703 rushing yards) expected to handle primary duties. Pittsburgh Injury Status: DT Isaiahh Loudermilk (OUT - ankle), DT Cameron Heyward (Limited - rest), LB T.J. Watt (Full Practice - lung), TE Jonnu Smith (Full Practice - glute), OG Isaac Seumalo (DNP - rest). Key Return: WR DK Metcalf returns from a two-game suspension after an altercation with a fan in Detroit on December 21. Metcalf expressed being "excited as hell to be back" and provides Pittsburgh with their most explosive receiving threat alongside existing targets. ​ Scheduling Spot: Houston (12-5) enters on 9 days rest after their Week 18 victory over Indianapolis 38-30 on January 4. Pittsburgh (10-7) also has 8 days rest following their dramatic 26-24 Week 18 win over Baltimore when Ravens kicker Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal as time expired. No significant travel disadvantage exists for Houston, though they are 5-3 on the road this season with only one road victory against a playoff team. The Texans remain 0-for-franchise history in road playoff victories across their 24-year existence. ​